Assimetria em movimento exponencial ponderada / curtose

Existem fórmulas on-line conhecidas para calcular médias móveis exponencialmente ponderadas e desvios padrão de um processo $(x_n)_{n=0,1,2,\dots}$ . Para a média,

$\mu_n = (1-\alpha) \mu_{n-1} + \alpha x_n$

e pela variação

$\sigma_n^2 = (1-\alpha) \sigma_{n-1}^2 + \alpha(x_n - \mu_{n-1})(x_n - \mu_n)$

a partir do qual você pode calcular o desvio padrão.

Existem fórmulas semelhantes para o cálculo on-line de momentos terceira e quarta centrais ponderados exponenciais? Minha intuição é que eles devem assumir a forma

$M_{3,n} = (1-\alpha) M_{3,n-1} + \alpha f(x_n,\mu_n,\mu_{n-1},S_n,S_{n-1})$

e

$M_{4,n} = (1-\alpha) M_{4,n-1} + \alpha f(x_n,\mu_n,\mu_{n-1},S_n,S_{n-1},M_{3,n},M_{3,n-1})$

from which you could compute the skewness $\gamma_n = M_{3,n} / \sigma_n^3$ and the kurtosis $k_n = M_{4,n}/\sigma_n^4$ but I've not been able to find simple, closed-form expression for the functions $f$ and $g$.

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Edit: Some more information. The updating formula for moving variance is a special case of the formula for the exponential weighted moving covariance, which can be computed via

$C_n(x,y) = (1-\alpha) C_{n-1}(x,y) + \alpha (x_n - \bar{x}_n) (y_n - \bar{y}_{n-1})$

onde e ˉ y n são os meios de deslocamento exponencial de x e y . A assimetria entre x e y é ilusória, e desaparece quando se notar que y - ˉ y n = ( 1 - α ) ( y - ˉ y n - 1 ) .$\bar{x}_n$$\bar{y}_n$$x$$y$$x$$y$$y-\bar{y}_n = (1-\alpha) (y-\bar{y}_{n-1})$

Formulas like this can be computed by writing the central moment as an expectation $E_n(\cdot)$, where weights in the expectation are understood to be exponential, and using the fact that for any function $f(x)$ we have

$E_n(f(x)) = \alpha f(x_n) + (1-\alpha) E_{n-1}(f(x))$

It's easy to derive the updating formulas for the mean and variance using this relation, but it's proving to be more tricky for the third and fourth central moments.

The formulas are straightforward but they are not as simple as intimated in the question.

Let $Y$ be the previous EWMA and let $X = x_n$, which is presumed independent of $Y$. By definition, the new weighted average is $Z = \alpha X + (1 - \alpha)Y$ for a constant value $\alpha$. For notational convenience, set $\beta = 1-\alpha$. Let $F$ denote the CDF of a random variable and $\phi$ denote its moment generating function, so that

$$\phi_X(t) = \mathbb{E}_F[\exp(t X)] = \int_\mathbb{R}{\exp(t x) dF_X(x)}.$$

With Kendall and Stuart, let $\mu_k^{'}(Z)$ denote the non-central moment of order $k$ for the random variable $Z$; that is, $\mu_k^{'}(Z) = \mathbb{E}[Z^k]$. The skewness and kurtosis are expressible in terms of the $\mu_k^{'}$ for $k = 1,2,3,4$; for example, the skewness is defined as $\mu_3 / \mu_2^{3/2}$ where

$$\mu_3 = \mu_3^{'} - 3 \mu_2^{'}\mu_1^{'} + 2{\mu_1^{'}}^3 \text{ and }\mu_2 = \mu_2^{'} - {\mu_1^{'}}^2$$

are the third and second central moments, respectively.

By standard elementary results,

$$\eqalign{ &1 + \mu_1^{'}(Z) t + \frac{1}{2!} \mu_2^{'}(Z) t^2 + \frac{1}{3!} \mu_3^{'}(Z) t^3 + \frac{1}{4!} \mu_4^{'}(Z) t^4 +O(t^5) \cr &= \phi_Z(t) \cr &= \phi_{\alpha X}(t) \phi_{\beta Y}(t) \cr &= \phi_X(\alpha t) \phi_Y(\beta t) \cr &= (1 + \mu_1^{'}(X) \alpha t + \frac{1}{2!} \mu_2^{'}(X) \alpha^2 t^2 + \cdots) (1 + \mu_1^{'}(Y) \beta t + \frac{1}{2!} \mu_2^{'}(Y) \beta^2 t^2 + \cdots). }$$

To obtain the desired non-central moments, multiply the latter power series through fourth order in $t$ and equate the result term-by-term with the terms in $\phi_Z(t)$.

I think that the following updating formula works for the third moment, although I'd be glad to have someone check it:

$M_{3,n} = (1-\alpha)M_{3,n-1} + \alpha \Big[ x_n(x_n-\mu_n)(x_n-2\mu_n) - x_n\mu_{n-1}(\mu_{n-1}-2\mu_n) - \dots$ $\dots - \mu_{n-1}(\mu_n-\mu_{n-1})^2 - 3(x_n-\mu_n) \sigma_{n-1}^2 \Big]$

Updating formula for the kurtosis still open...